Chapter 3: Avoiding Past Mistakes in a High-Demand World

In Chapter 1, we explored how natural gas and coal are making a comeback as utilities try to shore up grid reliability. In Chapter 2, we looked at a set of “no-regret” solutions — demand flexibility, virtual power plants (VPPs), and grid-enhancing technologies (GETs) — that can help reduce the need for new fossil infrastructure. This article series draws on six months of research combining public data sources and expert interviews, including utility integrated resource plans, regulatory filings, and industry reports. We spoke with utility executives, government officials, and leaders from Boston Consulting Group to understand how load growth is shaping grid planning and what solutions are emerging. We are excited to close out this research with our final chapter on how we can avoid mistakes and lay down the path for a clean future.

The U.S. power grid is being stress-tested like never before. As electricity demand surges, utilities are scrambling to respond — and in many cases, reaching for the fastest, most familiar solution: fossil fuels. But no matter how efficiently we optimize the grid or shave peaks in demand, one reality remains: we still need to build new capacity. The key is to build the right kind.

The decisions made over the next few years will shape the energy system for decades to come. Choosing the right path means avoiding short-term fixes that compromise long-term goals — and instead prioritizing technologies and partnerships that can support strategic, future-proof investments.

The Role of Clean Firm Power

While new natural gas generation is increasingly being used to meet rising demand, it’s clear that relying on fossil fuels alone isn’t a viable long-term strategy. The grid will require firm, dispatchable power to complement variable renewable energy and maintain reliability through periods of high demand or low generation. To date, this role has largely been played by coal and natural gas. But clean, firm technologies are emerging as credible alternatives — and they need to be at the center of long-term planning.

Technologies such as advanced geothermal, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage (LDES) offer zero-emissions firm capacity that can serve as the backbone of a decarbonized grid. Each of these solutions has the potential to provide the reliability and flexibility currently offered by fossil plants — without the emissions or climate risk. However, they come with long development timelines, technological hurdles, and high upfront costs. If these options are going to be ready when we need them, investment and deployment must start now.

Three Promising Technologies

Long-duration energy storage is a key enabler of a renewable-heavy grid. Unlike conventional batteries, which can discharge for two to four hours, LDES systems can store energy for days at a time. This makes them uniquely suited to help the grid ride through extended periods of low wind or solar generation. While still early in deployment, companies like Form Energy and Energy Vault are already demonstrating commercial-scale systems, offering a glimpse of how LDES could replace or complement natural gas peakers. For now, costs remain high and market structures often undervalue the services LDES can provide, but early support could bring these technologies to maturity.

Advanced geothermal is another promising avenue. Enabled by next-generation drilling and closed-loop systems, geothermal projects can provide clean, around-the-clock electricity in regions far beyond traditional geothermal hotspots. Importantly, these systems can be dispatchable, adjusting output in response to grid needs — a critical feature in balancing renewables. Pilot projects from companies like Fervo Energy and XGS are already under way, and while deployment timelines remain in the 4–7 year range, they are shortening with technological advances.

Nuclear is also seeing renewed interest, particularly from companies with massive and growing power needs. Next-generation reactors like the Natrium design and X-Energy’s Xe-100 are smaller, safer, and more flexible than the traditional nuclear fleet. Some are even capable of load-following, ramping output up or down to match demand or variability in renewables. Though public perception and long permitting processes remain barriers, these technologies offer a scalable path to clean firm power if regulatory and financial support align.

The Investment Window Is Now

These technologies won’t be ready at scale tomorrow — which is exactly why they need investment today. Without early action, the grid of the 2030s will still be relying on the gas plants being proposed today, locking in emissions and reducing flexibility for the next generation.

The next few years will be critical for de-risking these clean firm solutions. That means funding demonstrations, updating procurement frameworks, and aligning incentives to ensure that utilities see a viable path to adoption. It also means validating demand from major customers, like data centers and manufacturers, who are increasingly looking for clean firm options to meet their growing energy needs without undermining their climate goals.

Already, some of this work is under way. Federal programs like the Department of Energy’s “Pathways to Commercial Liftoff” have identified barriers and solutions for technologies like LDES and advanced nuclear. DOE’s Loan Programs Office has issued billions in conditional commitments to first-of-a-kind projects, helping move them from the pilot phase to commercial deployment. But these efforts will need to scale rapidly — and be matched by private sector commitment — if they’re going to make a real dent in utility planning decisions.

This Can’t Be Solved Alone

No single player can solve this challenge alone. Building a reliable, affordable, and clean grid will require deep collaboration between utilities, regulators, customers, and technology providers.

Large energy buyers, particularly hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, are already shaping utility planning in regions where data center demand is booming. These companies can play a pivotal role by going beyond traditional renewable energy credits and directly investing in clean firm supply. For example, Microsoft has partnered with Constellation to procure nuclear power, while other hyperscalers are exploring partnerships with geothermal and storage developers.

Regulators must evolve too. Planning frameworks and cost recovery rules need to be updated to reflect the value of emerging technologies and avoid penalizing solutions that don’t fit old models. In places like Georgia and Illinois, state commissions are already starting to rethink how utilities plan for and recover the costs of meeting large new loads — a trend that should expand nationwide.

Federal support remains a crucial accelerant. The DOE is helping fund early-stage projects, reduce permitting timelines, and de-risk deployment for technologies not yet fully commercial. These efforts not only provide direct funding but also signal to the market that clean firm capacity is a national priority.

And finally, technology startups and developers need access to capital, regulatory support, and integration opportunities. Without coordination between utilities and project developers, even the most promising technologies may never get past the pilot stage.

Avoiding the Mistakes of the Past

We’ve seen what happens when utilities are forced to react rather than plan. In the 2000s, a wave of natural gas investment created a generation of fossil infrastructure that still dominates the grid today — even as its emissions profile and cost competitiveness fall out of step with the modern energy landscape. If we fail to act now, the same thing could happen again, only this time the stakes are even higher.

The path forward is clear. A clean, reliable, and affordable grid is within reach — but only if we make the right investments now. That means validating demand, aligning incentives, and building coalitions across sectors. Most of all, it means refusing to settle for short-term fixes that jeopardize long-term progress.

We can’t afford to power the future with the tools of the past. The next chapter of the grid will be written in the decisions made today. Let’s make them count.

Our brilliant authors:

Nico deLuna is a joint MS / MBA candidate at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business and Doerr School of Sustainability. He is a core member of the Boston Consulting Group’s Energy and Climate practice areas, leading projects with power utilities, renewable developers, and public sector clients. His experience also includes roles with NextEra Energy Transmission, the Department of Energy’s Loan Program Office virtual power plant (VPPs) team, and most recently at XGS, a growth-stage advanced geothermal startup. Nico is committed to accelerating the transition to a more sustainable, reliable, and secure power system to protect the natural world from climate change.

Cariana Morales is a recent graduate of the Stanford Graduate School of Business. She began her career in management consulting at Bain & Company, focusing on strategy and operations. Most recently, she worked on grid modernization at Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) and served as a Shultz Fellow in the Office of Commissioner John Reynolds at the California Public Utilities Commission, where she researched data center load growth and large-load tariff design. Cariana wants to see a world in which load growth is an asset, not a liability, to the future of our energy system.